Predicting Habitat and Distribution of an Interior Highlands Regional Endemic Winter Stonefly (Allocapnia mohri) in Arkansas Using Random Forest Models

Stoneflies are a globally threatened aquatic insect order. In Arkansas, diverse group of winter stonefly (Capniidae: Allocapnia) have not been surveyed since the 1980s, likely because species-level identification requires rarely-collected adult form. Allocapnia mohri, regional endemic, was previously commonly found in mountainous, intermittent streams from Ouachita Mountains ecoregion north to Ozark Highlands, but no species distributional models including land use or climate variables exist our knowledge. We collected adults 71 stream reaches historic Arkansas range November April 2020 and 2021. modeled distributions using random forest (RF) populated with landscape, climate, both data determine which were most predictive presence. Correlations between landscape presence examined multiple logistic regression. The RF performed better than + models. A. mohri sites tended greater elevation, lower mean July temperature, percentage very slow infiltration soils watershed, compared absence sites. absent at may be experiencing contraction migration northward.